Numerical model for quantitative precipitation forecasting

Summary A numerical model for the quantitative precipitation forecasting has been formulated. In this model precipitation is computed as a function of the vertical velocity and humidity distribution in the atmosphere. The orographic influence on the vertical velocity was taken into consideration. Further, the relation between vertical velocity and static stability of the atmosphere has been considered and, as an important factor in the condensation process, was introduced into the equation of the model. This numerical model for the precipitation forecasting has been applied in the North Adriactic Sea region, which is characterized by a strong vertical gradient of the specific humidity and pronounced orographic influence. The results achieved show that this model could successfully be used as an objective method in the routine forecasting of the amount of precipitation.