| 黄河流域夏季分区面雨量预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许力,刘强.黄河流域夏季分区面雨量预报研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,26(1):116-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许力 刘强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国家气候中心,北京,100081
2. 济宁市气象局,山东,济宁,272037 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预测减灾司“七大江河流域面雨量预测研究”课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍黄河流域分区夏季面雨量预报的研究成果，精心挑选51个具有较好代表性的测站对黄河流域夏季降水的时空演变特征进行分析，使用K均值动态聚类对黄河流域的夏季降水进行了客观分区，并计算出各流域夏季面雨量。通过对黄河流域夏季雨量与500hPa环流，海温、OLR、中纬阻高，高原积雪，欧亚积雪等重要影响因子的关系分析，结合黄河流域夏季面雨量年降和年代际演变特征的分析，研究出黄河流域分区夏季面雨量预测的基本方法和模型，并通过客观化的数学方法建立黄河流域夏季面雨量预测系统，预测系统十年回报的结果显示出具有较的预测技巧。
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| 关 键 词： | 黄河流域 面雨量 天气预报 海温 夏季 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2022(2003)01-0116-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年12月17 |
The Long-Range Forecast for the Summer Regional Rainfall in the Yellow River Basin |
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| XU Li ,LIU Qiang.The Long-Range Forecast for the Summer Regional Rainfall in the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2003,26(1):116-123. |
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| Authors: | XU Li LIU Qiang |
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| Institution: | XU Li 1,LIU Qiang 2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the research result of the long-range forecast for the Yellow river basin regional rainfall in summer is summarized.On the basis of analyzing the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the summer rainfall of the Yellow river basin,the summer rainfall is classified by the K -mean cluster.The inter-annual and inter-decadal changes of the summer regional rainfall and their relationship are also calculated and analyzed with lots of associated factors,such as the general circulation at 500hPa,SSTA in the east Pacific,OLR over the tropics,the blocking high in mid-latitudes and the snow cover over Eurasia and the Tibetan Plateau,then an objective numerical forecast system is developed for the summer regional rainfall in the Yellow river basin.The ten years hind-cast of the system shows that the system have fairy good skills in regional rainfall forecast. |
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| Keywords: | Yellow river basin region classification regional rainfall seasonal forecast |
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