略谈油气物化探勘查中的不确定性与评价

在油气物化探勘查中,不确定性使得对勘查区的评价产生困难.物化探资料的使用可以减小这种不确定性,但不能消除它.在决策的各个阶段,使用物化探资料有助于提高勘查的效果及见油成功率.概率方法的引进可以改善现有勘查中的解释推断,使评价与决策定量化.

COMMENTS ON UNCERTAINTY AND ASSESSMENT IN GEOPHYSICAL AND GEOCHEMICAL OIL-GAS EXPLORATION

In geophysical and geochemical oil-gas exploration, uncertainty would cause assessment of prospects to fall into trouble. The use of geophysical and geo chemical data would reduce but could not eliminate the uncertainty. The use of data in different stages of decision making would also help to promote exploration effectiveness and increase the ratio of success. Introduction of pro bability methods would improve the current interpretation status in explora tion and enable the assessment and decision making to be performed on the quantitative basis.