| 基于泊松分布的川东暴雨概率特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕忠东,邹阳,李一波.基于泊松分布的川东暴雨概率特征分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2010,25(5):531-535. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕忠东 邹阳 李一波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省攀枝花市气象局,四川,攀枝花,617000
2. 中国民用航空飞行学院遂宁航空站,四川,遂宁,629000 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项资助项目(CCFS-09-19);中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基金项目(LPM20090017) |
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| 摘 要： | 暴雨是川东地区主要的气象灾害之一,对经济建设有重大影响。为进一步揭示该地区暴雨的统计特征,利用川东地区有代表性的4个测站（重庆、达州、巴中、南充）47年间（1961-2007年）4-10月日降水量资料,借助于泊松分布模式对该地区暴雨概率特征进行了分析。结果表明：用泊松分布模式能很好地描述川东地区的暴雨概率分布特征;模式计算均得出所研究的4站每年出现3次暴雨的机率最大。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象学 气候诊断 泊松分布 暴雨 概率特征 川东地区 |
Analysis on the Rainstorm Probability in the Eastern Region of Sichuan Based on Poisson Distribution |
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| LV Zhong-dong,ZOU Yang,LI Yi-bo.Analysis on the Rainstorm Probability in the Eastern Region of Sichuan Based on Poisson Distribution[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2010,25(5):531-535. |
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| Authors: | LV Zhong-dong ZOU Yang LI Yi-bo |
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| Institution: | LV Zhong-dong1,ZOU Yang2,LI Yi-bo1(1.Panzhihua Meteorological Office of Sichuan Province,Panzhihua 617000,China,2.Suining Aviation Station of CAFUC,Suining 629000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Rainstorm is one of the major meteorological disasters in the eastern region of Sichuan.And it can cause significant influence on the econormic construction.In order to further reveal the statistical features of the rainstorm in this region,based on the daily precipitation data of four representative stations(Chongqing,Dazhou,Bazhong,Nanchong) from April to October during 1961-2007,the rainstorm probability is analized by Poisson probability distribution model.The results can be concluded as follows:Poisson... |
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| Keywords: | meteorology climate diagnosis poisson distribution rainstorm probabily the eastern area of sichuan |
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