2007年9-11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

2007年9-11月冷空气频繁,气温变幅大,热带气旋活跃,给中期天气预报增加了一定的难度.为积累预报经验,提高中期预报准确率,对9-11月T213模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行对比分析.结果表明,T213、ECMWF和日本模式对亚洲中高纬大气环流调整具有较好的中期预报性能,对转折性、灾害性天气的预报有较强指示意义.综合来看,ECMWF对天气系统和要素的预报误差最小,T213模式误差最大,日本模式温度预报性能与ECMWF相当.对0713号台风登陆前的位置和移速,ECMWF预报较为准确,T213模式对台风登陆前移速预报偏慢,对台风登陆后的位置预报偏差最小,日本模式对台风位置和强度预报较为失败.

Verification of Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and Japan Model from September to November 2007

In order to understand the efficiency of the products from a medium-ange forecasting model, the synoptic verification and some comparisons of T213 Model with the ECMWF and JAPAN model are investigated from September to November 2007. The results show that all the three models have a good performance in forecasting the large-scale circulation in the high and middle latitudes, and they all show significant indication to forecast the transition and the weather disaster. On the whole, ECMWF got the minimum errors in forecasting the weather system and weather factors, while T213 got the maximum errors. Taking typhoon No. 0713 as a case, it was found that ECMWF got the most correct results for its location and moving speed, and that T213 got slow moving speed before landing but the most correct location after landing, and that JAPAN model completely failed in forecasting the location and the strength of the typhoon.