SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHANGES AND TRENDS OF AGEING IN CHINA

This study focuses on the development stages of ageing and its regional differences in China based on examination of official statistics and documents. The development of ageing in China has experienced three major stages. Firstly, in the 1950s, low coefficient of elderly population （over 65 years） paced up to primary adult type. Secondly, there was a deeply drop of the elderly population because of natural disaster and political factors in the 1960s. Thirdly, from the 1970s to the end of 20th century, the constant increasing of elderly coefficient made China close to elderly society. With statistic data of population, Logistic model is used to simulate the future development of ageing, and two characteristics of development of ageing are presented. Firstly, as for ageing from 2005 to 2050, the elderly coefficient will grow up significantly from 8.48% to 16.30%. Secondly, after 2025, the increasing rate of elderly coefficient will slow down gradually. The regional differences of elderly population in China can be summarized as follows： 1） the eastern China possesses higher elderly coefficient and huger elder population than the western China; 2） about 47.4% of municipalities and provinces in the eastern China become elderly especially Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong Province; 3） ageing intensity is higher in rural area than urban area but getting close each other, and there are more elderly people in rural area than in urban area. Therefore, these will arose aged care problems, and it becomes important issue to establish the social security system in rural areas as soon as possible for elderly people.

Spatial-temporal changes and trends of ageing in China

This study focuses on the development stages of ageing and its regional differences in China based on examination of official statistics and documents. The development of ageing in China has experienced three major stages. Firstly, in the 1950s, low coefficient of elderly population (over 65 years) paced up to primary adult type. Secondly, there was a deeply drop of the elderly population because of natural disaster and political factors in the 1960s. Thirdly, from the 1970s to the end of 20th century, the constant increasing of elderly coefficient made China close to elderly society. With statistic data of population, Logistic model is used to simulate the future development of ageing, and two characteristics of development of ageing are presented. Firstly, as for ageing from 2005 to 2050, the elderly coefficient will grow up significantly from 8.48% to 16.30%. Secondly, after 2025, the increasing rate of elderly coefficient will slow down gradually. The regional differences of elderly population in China can be summarized as follows: 1) the eastern China possesses higher elderly coefficient and huger elder population than the western China; 2) about 47.4% of municipalities and provinces in the eastern China become elderly especially Shanghai, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong Province; 3) ageing intensity is higher in rural area than urban area but getting close each other, and there are more elderly people in rural area than in urban area. Therefore, these will arose aged care problems, and it becomes important issue to establish the social security system in rural areas as soon as possible for elderly people. Foundation item: Under the auspices of Key Technologies R&D Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 96-920-34-01) Biography: WANG Wu-yi (1949-), male, a native of Beijing, professor, specialized in environmental change and health. E-mail: wangwy@igsnrr.ac.cn