Loading of a seismic zone to failure deforms nearby volcanoes: a new earthquake precursor

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was loaded to failure in June 2000, resulting in two M6.6 earthquakes. The SISZ is an E–W‐trending zone with an overall sinistral movement. Numerical models indicate that, when the SISZ is loaded to failure, there are stress concentrations at its ends: tensile in the north‐east and south‐west quadrants, and compressive in the north‐west and south‐east quadrants. These model predictions fit well with observations. Geodetic measurements indicate considerable compression, uplift and associated intense seismicity in recent years in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, located in the quadrants of compression, whereas there have been unusually frequent eruptions in the past decades in the Hekla Volcano, located in one of the quadrants of extension. The models predict that following the large June 2000 earthquakes, stress relaxation within the SISZ should lead to stopping of the intense seismicity and deformation in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, again in agreement with observations. However, when similar episodes of deformation and seismicity start again, particularly in the Hengill Volcano, a large earthquake would be expected within several years in the SISZ. The numerical models, and the deformation and seismic data, indicate that monitoring of ‘soft’ inclusions such as volcanoes (many with magma chambers) in the vicinity of a seismic zone may serve as precursors to large earthquakes.