Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea |
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Authors: | Saralees Nadarajah Dongseok Choi |
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Institution: | (1) School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK;(2) Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon 97201-3098, USA |
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Abstract: | Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good
geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location
to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution
provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the
data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year
return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application
of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea. |
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Keywords: | Annual maximum daily rainfall extreme value theory generalized extreme value distribution Gumbel distribution return levels trend data analysis hydrology modeling |
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