Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values |
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Authors: | Matthew P Thompson David E Calkin Mark A Finney Alan A Ager Julie W Gilbertson-Day |
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Institution: | (1) Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA;(2) Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Prineville, OR, USA;(3) College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA |
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Abstract: | The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet
societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial
wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology
leverages off recent and significant advancements in wildfire simulation models and geospatial data acquisition and management.
The tool is intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to develop information useful in prioritizing
fuels treatments and mitigation measures. Wildfire risk assessment requires analyzing the likelihood of wildfire by intensity
level, and the magnitude of potential beneficial and negative effects to valued resources from fire at different intensity
levels. This effort is designed to support strategic planning by systematically portraying how fire likelihood and intensity
influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at the national scale. We present results for the continental United
States, analyze high risk areas by geographic region, and examine how risk evaluations changes under different assumptions
with sensitivity analysis. We conclude by discussing further potential uses of the tool and research needs. |
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