大型堆积层斜坡滑移性质的趋势时空分析—以新滩滑坡分析为例

本文利用数理统计原理对新滩斜坡的前后段分别进行了系统的趋势滑移时空分析，发现该斜坡后缘区各监测点有明显的趋势位移且趋势位移率随时间而逐渐增高，而前缘区监测点则无趋势位移。此结果表明该段后缘区为整体滑移区且向失稳方向转化，而前缘区则是相对稳定区，是该段下滑阻力区。该分析结果与力学稳定性评价结论相吻合。同时，还发现前缘Ａ３、Ｂ３两点的趋势位移明显且随时间而增高。说明斜坡前段后缘区是非稳定斜坡。这与斜坡

Temporo-spatial analysis of trend of sliding on slope of large-scale accumulations

This paper, having made systematic temporo-spatial analysis on trend sliding sparately for front and rear segments of the Xintan slope by using mathematical statisical principle, discvered that there is obvious trend displacement of the monitoring points in the rear margin area of the slope and the rate of trend displacement gradually increases with time whereas there is no trend displacement of the monitoring points in the front margin area. This result suggests that the rear margin area of the segment is an area of overall sliding and is transforming towards destabilization, whereas the front margin area is an area of relative stability and is the resistant area of the segment. This analytic result well coincides with the conclusion of evaluation on dynamic stability. At the same time, it was discovered that there is obvious trend displacement of the poiots A_3 and B_3, which increases with time, indicating that the rear margin area of front segment of the slope is an unstable slope, as coincides with the actual sliding of the slope. The analytical result mentioned above shows that medium-to short-term forecast and prediction of slope stability can be made by using trend displacement analysis technique in order to achieve the goal of timely evaluation and prevention.