滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究

建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50~80 m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19 a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。

A study on extratropical storm surge disaster risk assessment at Binhai New Area

A storm surge inundation numerical simulation model with high resolution based on unstructured triangle grid has been established for Binhai New Area including the resolution of 50-80 meters in land area,the numerical simulation is carried on to two storm surge processes and the calculated results agree well with the observations. 19 year statistical high astronomical tide is assigned and four levels weather system is developed by the analysis of historical weather process also. Four ranks of extratropical storm surge biggest inundation extent are simulated at Binhai New Area. Comprehensive consideration of storm surge hazard and vulnerability,the GIS-based storm surge disaster risk spatial distribution map is produced. most parts of Binhai New Area has storm surge disaster risk and the coastal areas risk are bigger than the inland areas,and Tianjin Port,Near port industrial district,north shore Haihe River and the south area of Dagang appeared the biggest risk.