黄土地区土壤重力侵蚀灰色系统模型研究

介绍了黄土丘陵沟壑区土壤区土壤重力侵蚀灰色系统预测模型的构造原理和方法，并用灰色关联度的方法来反映模型的预测值与山西离石王家沟流域重力观测数据之间的关联性，用以分析模型的预测精度。同时反映了土壤重力侵蚀系统的动态变化规律，引入了残差辨识的理论和方法，以提高模型的预报水平。

RESEARCH ON GREY SYSTEM MODEL FOR SOIL GRAVITY EROSION IN LOESS REGIONS

This paper presents constructive principles and building approaches of grey system prediction models for soil gravity erosion in loess hills and gullies. With the models, the author made test research on soil gravity erosion in Wangjiagou watershed in Lishi County, west Shanxi Provence. And the relationships between prediction values of the models and observed values of soil gravity erosion are reflected with gray relational extents, and prediction precisions of the models are analysed. Meanwhile, to mirror the dynamic changing rules of soil gravity erosion system, the principle and approaches of the remnant distinguishing are introduced, so as to improve prediction level of the models. The models have high prediction precisions, and provide a new way of quantitative analysis for researches on soil gravity erosion in loess regions.