2000—2019年江西省能源消费碳排放变化及其影响因素

基于能源消耗数据，采用IPCC碳核算方法和LMDI分解模型，探讨了2000—2019年江西省一次能源消费碳排放的变化及其主要影响因素，并通过Tapio脱钩模型进一步分析了经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩特征。结果表明：1)一次能源碳排放量整体呈上升趋势，碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势，其中2015年以后碳排放量年均增长速度放缓、碳排放强度下降速度加快。2)对碳排放量增加起促进作用的因素为人口效应、经济产出效应和能源结构效应，其中经济产出效应的作用最为显著；起抑制作用的要素为能源强度效应，能源替代效应不明显。与2000—2015年仅能源强度效应使碳排放量下降的情况不同，2015—2019年能源强度效应、能源替代效应和能源结构效应均使碳排放量下降，其中能源强度效应贡献率比2000—2015年高3倍。3)经济增长与能源消费碳排放量以弱脱钩为主，其中2016—2019年脱钩弹性呈逐渐减小趋势。

Study on carbon emission intensity and its influence factor for the energy consumption in Jiangxi province during 2000-2019

Based on the energy consumption data from 2000 to 2019, the main influencing factors of carbon emissions produced by primary energy consumption in Jiangxi province from 2000 to 2019 were discussed using the IPCC carbon accounting method and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), and then the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions was further analyzed through Tapio decoupling model. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2019, carbon emissions of primary energy in Jiangxi exhibited an upward trend, while carbon emission intensity presented a downward trend. The average annual growth rate of carbon emissions in Jiangxi decreased and the declined rate of carbon emission intensity increased after 2015. 2) From 2000 to 2019, the effect of population, economic, and energy structure promoted the increase of carbon emissions in Jiangxi province, especially economic effect, while the energy intensity effect inhibited carbon emissions growth and energy substitution effect was not obvious. Unlike the situation that only energy intensity had an inhibiting effect on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2015, the energy intensity effect, energy substitution effect and energy structure effect inhibited the growth of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2019. Especially, the contribution rate of energy intensity effect was 3 times higher than that from 2000 to 2015. 3) From 2000 to 2019, decoupling was weak between economic growth and carbon emissions. The decoupling elasticity showed a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2019.