Large-scale short-term seismicity activation prior to the strongest earthquakes of Japan and the Kurile Islands |
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Authors: | P N Shebalin |
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Institution: | 1.International Institute of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia |
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Abstract: | The Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) algorithm for the prediction of strong earthquakes has become known owing to the successful
predictions of the Tokachi-oki earthquake near Hokkaido Island and the San Simeon earthquake of California in 2003, as well
as to other well-documented predictions found on the Internet, some of which also proved to be successful. The RTP predictions
with the use of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) data for the zone from Honshu Island to the Middle Kurile Islands deserve
special attention. None of the five predictions starting in the middle of 2003, including the last one formulated for the
region where the catastrophic earthquake of March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of M = 9 occurred, was a false alarm. One distinctive feature of predictions for this region is the enormous size (about 1000
km) of alarm regions. At the same time, the relatively short alarm interval makes it possible to record a real number of earthquakes
with a magnitude of 7.2 and higher during alarm periods, which is about five times larger than on average over the equivalent
period, i.e., to reach a probability gain of about five. |
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Keywords: | |
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