Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield |
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Authors: | Álvaro González Javier B Gómez Amalio F Pacheco |
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Institution: | (1) Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Zaragoza, C. Pedro Cerbuna, 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain;(2) Departamento de Física Teórica and BIFI, Universidad de Zaragoza, C. Pedro Cerbuna, 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain |
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Abstract: | The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M
w
= 6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized. |
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Keywords: | California Parkfield renewal models San Andreas fault seismic hazard assessment |
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