虚拟水的理论方法及在甘肃省的应用

水资源短缺问题是中国西北地区面临的突出问题,解决西北地区水资源短缺问题必须要有新的思路。虚拟水是水问题与水资源安全研究中的新概念,是指生产商品和服务所需要的水资源数量。虚拟水战略是指缺水国家或地区通过贸易的方式从富水国家或地区购买水密集型产品(尤其是粮食) 来获得本地水和粮食的安全,将水短缺问题的解决途径扩展到社会经济系统,人口—粮食—贸易之间的连接关系是虚拟水战略分析的主线。作者引入了虚拟水的概念,并简要介绍了当前国际研究的进展情况和计算方法。结合甘肃省的实际情况,初步计算得到2000年甘肃省生产产品中和城乡居民消费的产品中的虚拟水含量分别为222.02×108m3和183.75×108m3,分别是实体水资源利用量的1.8和1.5倍。分析了虚拟水战略的政策影响和虚拟水战略的优缺点,指出了在虚拟水理论与应用方面需要焏待开展的研究内容。

Virtual Water Consumption Calculation and Analysis of Gansu Province in 2000

In this paper, we firstly introduce the concept of virtual water, discuss its role in managing water resources and its social, economic, and political implications. Virtual water strategy means countries or regions whose water is scarce achieve their water security and food security by importing water-intensive products from those whose water is abundant, which expands the solution of water resource scarcity to the political-economic system. The particular linkage of population, food, and trade has been the masterstroke of virtual water strategy research. Secondly, we present the methodology to assess the virtual water content in crop and livestock products, and take Gansu as a case to analyse the virtual water content in product and circulating field. Owing to lack of rigorous statistical data of trade among provinces, the above results are then combined with the index of consumption amount of product to get a picture of virtual water circulation in social-economic system of the province. The calculation results show that the total product-related and consumption-related virtual water amount is estimated to be 222.02×108 m³ and 183.75×108 m³ respectively. Thirdly, we discuss the political implications and potential applicability of virtual water associated with water security, economic benefit and consumption structure in Gansu, and examine the advantage and disadvantage of virtual water strategy. The results show that virtual water trade is an instrument to achieve water security and efficient water use. A linkage between consumption patterns and the impacts on water is made.