长江中下游实时洪水预报模拟

以长江中下游防洪系统为对象,概述了在大型复杂防洪系统水沙运动数值模拟基础上,成功地将面向长江中下游防洪规划论证需求的水沙数学模型转化为面向长江防洪系统防汛方案评估需求的长江中下游实时洪水预报数学模型.为适应实时预报调度快速、准确评估的要求,提出了基于水动力学的循环滚动计算模式和实时校正模式.实现了水文学实时校正方法与水动力学数学模型的耦合,建立了基于水动力学的实时校正模式和分洪溃口洪水预报模式.通过长江中下游防汛期间的试运行,较好地解决了洪水预报误差校正和分洪溃口后洪水预报等关键难题,为防汛方案的制定和实时洪水调度方案优化提供了技术支撑,主要成果已应用于长江中下游防汛调度方案中.

Real-time flood forecasting in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Using the flood control system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as study objects,a numerical model for real-time flood forecasting in the reaches is presented.The model is a further development of the flow and bed load transport module that is part of a complex flood control system and able to provide information for flood control planning.To accommodate the needs of quickly and accurately forecasting floods and operating control structures in real tmie,we propose an iterative scrolling algo rithm and calibration techniques based on hydrodynamics.Coupling the numerical model with real-tmie calibration of hydrological parameters can thus be achieved.A trialoperation of the numerical model is conducted during the Yangtze River flooding seasons.The result shows that the numerical model is able to effectively address key issues that arise from executing the realt mie calibration of hydrological parameters and from realtmie flood forecasting after Yangtze Riverem bankment breached.The result provides the technical support for flood control planning and real-tmie flood operations.Our results have been used in flood operations for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.