基于MEM1谱分析的水文时间序列隐含周期特性研究

水文时间序列的隐含周期(本文将简单周期、复合周期及近似周期等统称为隐含周期)的识别、判定是一个重要而又较为困难的问题,相对成熟和有效的做法是对其进行频谱分析。建立在最大熵原理(POME)基础之上的MEM1谱分析,克服了传统谱分析方法的诸多不足,具有频谱光滑、分辨率高等独特优势。为此,以黄河花园口(秦厂)测站年径流系列、月径流系列和年最大洪峰流量序列隐含周期特性的研究为例,探讨了MEM1谱分析在水文时间序列隐含周期特性中的应用。

Research on Cryptic Period of Hydrologic Time Series Based on MEM1 Spectral Analysis

The identifying and ascertaining of cryptic period,includes simple period,complex period and approximate period,of hydrologic time series is a rather important and hard issue.A relatively perfect and effective means is made spectral analysis.MEM1(Maximum Entropy Method1)spectral analysis found on the principle of maximum entropy(POME)which overcomes many short of the traditional spectral analysis methods,has advantage such as slick spectrum and high distinguish rate.Therefore,MEM1spectral analysis was employed to detect the cryptic period of the annual runoff series,monthly runoff series,and maximum flood peak series of Huayuankou in Yellow River as the case.