中国的PM2.5和对流层臭氧及污染物排放控制对策的综合分析

本文首先对中国PM2.5和近地面臭氧浓度的观测进行了简要的综述；并利用2010-2013年全球对流层臭氧的卫星观测数据给出了对流层臭氧浓度在全球和中国地区的分布特征，其平均值分别为29.78 DU和33.97 DU。然后，利用一个气溶胶大气化学-全球气候双向耦合模式模拟了中国地区PM2.5的浓度分布和季节变化，其年平均值为0.51×10^-8 kg/m³。在此基础上又分析了5种典型气溶胶对PM2.5总浓度在不同季节的贡献。结合IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5），讨论了气溶胶和温室气体及其前体物的排放与辐射强迫的联系，以及减排大气臭氧前体物和气溶胶颗粒物质（PM）对气候变化的可能影响。指出减排臭氧前体物对气候的影响还不完全清楚，对短寿命的温室气体和黑碳气溶胶的减排是一种短期（未来50年）的辅助措施；为了保证全球平均温度增长不超过2℃，减少二氧化碳的排放仍是我们需要坚持的长期战略。短期和长期的减排战略对于保护环境和减缓气候变化都是至关重要的。

PM2.5 and Tropospheric Ozone in China and Pollutant Emission Controlling Integrated Analyses

This work reviewed the observational status of PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China firstly; the distribution of the concentration of tropospheric ozone over the globe and China were given based on the satellite observation during the period of 2010-2013. The annual mean values are 29.78 DU and 33.97 DU in the globe and China region, respectively. Then, the distribution of PM2.5 concentration and their seasonal changes in China were simulated by an aerosol chemistry-climate coupled model system, with annual mean value of 0.51×10^-8 kg/m³. The contributions from five kinds of aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 concentrations in different seasons were also analyzed. Then, the relations between the emissions of aerosol, greenhouse gases and their precursors and their radiative forcings were illustrated referring to the IPCC AR5. For these relations, the possible effects of controlling ozone precursors and particle matter on the climate were given, of which, the former is not totally clear, while reducing emissions of short lived greenhouse gases and black carbon is a secondary measure for short term (the future 50 years) climate change mitigation. Reducing emission of CO₂ is still our main strategy to promise the target of global average surface air temperature rise less than 2℃. The strategies of pollutant emission control for near term and long term are all important for the prospects of both environment protection and climate change mitigation.