热带太平洋海洋环流与暖池的结构特征、变异机理和气候效应

热带西太平洋暖池是引发强烈的大气对流、驱动Walker环流和Hadley环流系统的主要热源之一,对全球、尤其是东亚气候有重要影响。针对我国在提升气候预测水平方面的重大和迫切需求,国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"热带太平洋海洋环流与暖池的结构特征、变异机理和气候效应"于2011年7月正式立项。项目拟解决的关键科学问题包括:①调控暖池形成和变异的海洋环流多尺度相互作用过程;②海洋动力过程在暖池热盐结构变异中的作用及其机理;③暖池变异对不同类型El Nio影响机理的异同和对东亚季风变异的调制机理。围绕上述关键科学问题,项目将以暖池变异为中心,关注影响和控制暖池结构与变异的关键海洋过程,以及暖池海气相互作用影响ENSO循环、东亚季风年际变异的过程和机理,重点组织开展以下3个方面有针对性的调查研究:①热带太平洋环流和暖池的结构和变异特征;②热带太平洋环流与暖池相互作用的关键过程和机理;③暖池变异的海洋—大气耦合过程及其气候效应。在此基础上,项目将力争阐明暖池影响东亚季风和我国气候变异的过程、机理与敏感区,改进模式的混合参数化方案,提出有效提高ENSO预报技巧的同化方案,为我国短期气候预测能力的提高提供科学支撑。

Structure, Variations and Climatic Impacts of Ocean Circulation and the Warm Pool in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The warm pool in the western tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the major heat sources causing strong atmospheric convection,driving the Walker circulation and Hadley cell,hence influencing the global and East Asian climate.Facing the requirement of climate prediction,variations and climatic impacts of ocean circulation and the warm pool in the tropical Pacific Ocean,a project of the National Basic Research Program Structure,was approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China in July,2011.Three key scientific issues that will be addressed in the project are as follows.① Multi-scale interactions of oceanic dynamic processes associated with the formation and maintenance of the warm pool;② Roles of oceanic processes in warm pool′s thermohaline structure and its variations;③ Influence of the warm pool variations on different types of El Nino and the East Asia Monsoon modulation.Focusing on the above key issues centered at the warm pool′s variations and climatic impacts,three aspects of investigations will be conducted under the project: ① Structures and variations of ocean circulation and warm pool in the tropical Pacific Ocean;② Key processes and mechanisms of ocean circulation-warm pool interactions;③Ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the warm pool variations and their climatic impacts.In this project,we will try to identify and understand the processes,mechanisms and sensitive areas of the warm pool variations influencing the East Asian Monsoon and climate variations in China,and offer scientific and methodological bases for improving the capacity of the short term climate prediction by developing ocean model′s mixing parameterization and assimilation schemes of coupled model for the ENSO prediction.