照常情景的定义及其对减缓努力评价的影响

发展中国家排放的"照常情景"是气候变化研究及谈判中的焦点问题。目前对"照常情景"有不同的定义,本文分析了这些定义的异同,并指出不同定义的主要区别在于如何确定排放预测的起始点,也即"照常情景"的"基年"问题。部分国际机构采取的"照常情景"定义低估了发展中国家在"照常情景"下的排放路径,进而低估了发展中国家的减缓努力。建议采用固定基年的"无措施情景"来定义"照常情景",以设定客观的评价基准,公平地评价发展中国家的减缓努力。

Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impact on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts

Business as usual(BAU) scenario has been a debated issue during climate change negotiation.This paper introduces different definitions of BAU and points out that the major difference among different definitions is how to set the starting point of BAU projection,so called the "base year"of BAU.Some international institutions used "existing policy scenarios"to project the BAU trajectory of developing countries.Such a definition will lead to an underestimate of the BAU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimate of mitigation efforts.This paper suggests to use the "without policy scenario"with a fixed base year as the definition of BAU,this definition will set an objective benchmark for assessing the mitigation efforts of developing countries.