未来20年中国气温变化预估

利用大约40余个气候模式和模式集合，考虑多种人类排放情景，预估到2025年前相对于1961－1990年中国的气温变化。只考虑未来人类排放增加多模式集成预估结果表明，中国年平均气温自2006到2025年的20 a期间将继续变暖0.55 ℃，至2010年年平均气温平均变暖大约为1.08 ℃（平均变暖范围为 0.73-1.54 ℃），至2020年年平均变暖约为1.43 ℃（平均变暖范围为1.10-2.09 ℃），至2025年平均变暖约为1.39 ℃（平均变暖范围为0.94-2.19 ℃）。 对1990－2005年已经出现观测事实的近16 a气候模式预估结果进行检验表明，多模式考虑多种排放情景集成，一致预估出这16 a的明显变暖趋势，但是变暖幅度略低于实际观测值。经检测证实，对2006－2025年中国气温的预估具有一定的可信度。需要指出的是，目前的预估没有考虑未来的自然变化，只考虑人类排放继续增加的影响。

Projections of surface air temperature change in China for the next two decades

The projections of the annual mean surface air temperature change in China for the next two decades (2006-2025) have been calculated by about 40 climate models with the various human emission scenarios. The further warming trend with about 0.55 ℃ per two decades is projected for the various human emission scenarios. The warming with 1.08 ℃ (average range from 0.73 ℃ to 1.54 ℃) by 2010 and 1.43 ℃ (average range from 0.73 ℃ to 1.54 ℃) by 2020 as well as 1.39 ℃ (average range from 0.94 ℃ to 2.19 ℃) by 2025 is projected by the ensemble climate models. The detection and assessments of temperature changes in China for the last 16 years (1990-2005) as projected by the multi-models with the various human emission scenarios have been conducted. To compare with the observed temperature changes for the same time, the ensemble multi-models project the warming trends for the last 16 years reasonably, but the warming amplitudes are lower than the observations. Therefore, the detection shows that the projections of temperature changes in China for the next two decades (2006-2025) have a certain capability and reliability. Now, all projections only calculate the increments of human emission scenarios, not including the natural changes in the future.