基于最大发展潜力值的元胞自动机城市扩张模型

在城镇化发展水平及土地开发评价的基础上,评价待扩张区域土地转变潜力分值,基于最大转变潜力分值,提出一种有别于传统元胞自动机模拟城市扩张的新方法。该方法与传统元胞自动机模拟城市扩张相比在迭代方式上存在不同,它克服了传统元胞自动机因阈值设置不同而导致结果不确定的难题。分别将该方法与传统元胞自动机模型应用于武汉主城区,模拟了其2003年到2013年的城市扩张情况,最后,将模拟结果与实际土地利用现状图进行对比发现改进后的新方法在模拟精度上大大提高。

Cellular Automata Urban Expansion Model Based on the Max imum Potential Value of Cell Transformation

The potential of land cover change could be estimated on the basis of urbanization level and land development evaluation. Based on the potential value, a new method of simulating urban expansion that is different from the traditional Cellular Automata is proposed.According to development potentiality in every search process, the method described in this article only transforms cells with a maximum potential value that are suitable for neighborhood requirements into urban cells.Compared with traditional methods, trans-formation threshold is not required with this new strategy.Each of the two methods is applied to simulating urban expansion of the main urban area of Wuhan from 2003 to 2013 separately, and it is demonstrated that the precision of the new ameliorated method is signifi-cantly improved compared to the traditional methodology.