尼日利亚经济增长机制和问题研究——基于荷兰病理论的分析

尼日利亚经济增长速度与石油市场盛衰息息相关,70年代石油产业繁荣时期和1999年以来初级产品超级周期中增长迅速,而80和90年代石油产业萧条时期则增长缓慢甚至出现负增长。2014年4月尼日利亚宣布调整统计基准年,GDP达5099亿美元,超越南非成为非洲最大经济体,两国经济实力的此消彼长正在改变非洲经济格局和投资版图。本文基于1970-2013年尼日利亚经济数据,分析了尼日利亚“荷兰病”主要症状,包括过度依赖石油产业,严重去工业化和去农业化,储蓄不足,投资效率低下,滋生财富集中、腐败、寻租、贫困化增长、基础设施不足、极端组织猖獗等多重严重社会问题。尼日利亚破解“荷兰病”的对策在于推动经济多元化,发展农业、劳动密集型制造业、炼油等石油行业下游产业,加大基础设施和人力资源投资,提升制度质量和执行效率。

Research on Mechanism and Problems of Growth in Nigeria---Based on Theoretical Analysis of Dutch Disease

Nigeria's economic growth is closely related with rise and fall of the oil price in the world market, GDP grew rapidly in the 1970s because of oil boom and super cycle of commodity since 1999, while grew slowly or even negatively in the 1980s and 1990s because of oil price downturn. From 1999 to 2013, under the leadership of Obasanjo, Yar'Adua and Jonathan, Nigeria achieved 15-year high growth, and laid foundation for sustainable development. In April 2014, Nigeria announced adjustment of statistical base year, 2013 annual GDP increased by 89.2% to $ 509.9 billion and overtook South Africa as Africa's largest economy. South Africa's economy is more diversified and mature, but fiscal deficit, international trade deficits and frequent strikes resulted in low growth in recent years. With huge population, resources, and market potential, Nigeria shows good momentum of high growth rates, large trade surpluses, lower inflation, and controllable fiscal deficit, and qualifies for conditions of sustainable growth. The shift in economic size between the two countries is changing the economic structure and investment territory in African. Based on the Nigerian economic data from 1970 to 2013, the main symptoms of "Dutch disease" in Nigeria are analysed, including excessive reliance on the oil industry, severe de-industrialization and de-agriculturalization, low savings ratio, low investment efficiency, and serious multiple social problems such as concentration of wealth, inefficient government, corruption, rent-seeking, pauperization growth, insufficient infrastructure, rampant extremist and terrorist groups, etc.. In order to cure the "Dutch disease" in Nigeria, measures to be taken including to promote economic diversification, to develop agriculture, labor-intensive manufacturing, and oil refining, to increase investment in infrastructure and human resources, to improve the institution quality and implementation efficiency, and to create the circumstance for sustainable growth.