灰色关联度分析法在北京通州区地裂缝灾害危险性评价中的应用

地裂缝是地质灾害中的地面变形灾害之一,是直接或间接地恶化环境、降低环境质量、危害人类和生物圈发展的地质事件。本文介绍了利用灰色关联度分析法对地裂缝灾害危险性进行评价,并系统阐述了灰色关联度分析法的评价方法与模型,旨在为城市规划和防灾减灾提供科学依据。文中以北京市通州区为例,对北京市通州区地裂缝现状进行了说明并对其进行了成因分析,选取了灾害发育强度、地质条件和水文地质条件三项因子共六个评价指标,然后对评价指标进行权重计算评定地裂缝的危险性等级,并绘制区划图。根据区划的结果,划分地裂缝中度易发区、轻度易发区、微度易发区以及非易发区。

Application of grey degree of association evaluation method in ground fissures in Tongzhou District of Beijing

Ground fissures are one of the ground deformation disasters in geological hazards,and they are the geological events which deterate enviroment,reduce the quality of the enviroment,harm the development of human beings and the biosphere derectly or inderectly.This paper introduced the method of grey degree of association evaluation to evaluate the risk of ground fissures,and explained the evaluation methods and models with this method systematieally in order to provide scientific basis for urban planning and disaster prevention and mitigation.Taking Tongzhou,one district of beijing for the exemple,we illustrated the status of ground fissures in Tongzhou District,and used the genetic analysis,selected six evaluation indicators from three factors,in which are about disaster and development strength,geological conditions and hydrogeological conditions,and then calculatedd the weights of evaluation indicators to assess the risk level of the ground fissures,and mapped the zoning map.As the results,it was devided into moderate-prone areas,mild-prone areas,little-prone areas and non-prone areas.