加卸载响应比理论在水库型滑坡时间预测预报中的应用研究

加卸载响应比理论在滑坡时间预测预报中的应用越来越广泛，但基本都以降雨型堆积层滑坡为研究对象，加卸载参数以降雨量、地下水水位为主，而对于水库型滑坡研究较少。为此，提出了一种以库水位为加卸载参数，以滑坡加速度为加卸载响应参数的预测模型，并以典型水库型滑坡——八字门滑坡为例对其准确性进行验证。研究结果表明，以库水位为加卸载参数的加卸载响应比理论预测模型能较准确地对水库型滑坡进行预测预报。

Research on the application of load-unload response ratio theory on time prediction of reservoir-type landslides

Taking precipitation-induced accumulation landslides as the basic research object and containing rainfall and groundwater as the main load-unload parameters, the load unload response ratio theory is used more and more widely in time prediction of landslides. However, reservoir-type landslides are seldom examined with this theory. For this reason, we propose a forecast model in this article in which reservoir water level is treated as the load unload parameter and landslide acceleration, as the load unload response parameter. The above model is used to verify the accuracy by taking a typical reservoir landslide-the Bazimen landslide for example. The results show that the prediction model of load-unload response ratio theory with reservoir water level as the load-unload parameter can accurately predict the time in reservoir type landslides.