A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Raffaele?GrassoEmail author Marco?Cococcioni Baptiste?Mourre Jacopo?Chiggiato Michel?Rixen |
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Institution: | (1) NATO Undersea Research Centre, Viale San Bartolomeo 400, 19126 La Spezia, Italy |
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Abstract: | The aim of this work is to report on an activity carried out during the 2010 Recognized Environmental Picture experiment,
held in the Ligurian Sea during summer 2010. The activity was the first at-sea test of the recently developed decision support
system (DSS) for operation planning, which had previously been tested in an artificial experiment. The DSS assesses the impact
of both environmental conditions (meteorological and oceanographic) and non-environmental conditions (such as traffic density
maps) on people and assets involved in the operation and helps in deciding a course of action that allows safer operation.
More precisely, the environmental variables (such as wind speed, current speed and significant wave height) taken as input
by the DSS are the ones forecasted by a super-ensemble model, which fuses the forecasts provided by multiple forecasting centres.
The uncertainties associated with the DSS’s inputs (generally due to disagreement between forecasts) are propagated through
the DSS’s output by using the unscented transform. In this way, the system is not only able to provide a traffic light map
(run/not run the operation), but also to specify the confidence level associated with each action. This feature was tested on a particular
type of operation with underwater gliders: the glider surfacing for data transmission. It is also shown how the availability
of a glider path prediction tool provides surfacing options along the predicted path. The applicability to different operations
is demonstrated by applying the same system to support diver operations. |
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