农用地集约利用变化与经济增长的动态计量分析——以新疆拜城县为例

农用地集约利用程度直接关系到区域土地的可持续利用，与区域社会经济发展密切相关，科学量化评价农用地集约利用变化过程及其与经济增长之间的动态关系，对于农业可持续发展有着重要的意义。利用新疆拜城县1978-2010年时间序列数据，通过构建农用地集约利用评价指标体系，在对原始数据进行标准化的基础上，采用熵值法确定各指标权重，利用多因素综合评分法对历年农用地集约利用水平进行测度与分析，然后利用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型考察农用地集约利用指数与农民人均纯收入水平之间的内在联系。研究发现：改革开放以来，拜城县的农用地集约利用水平逐步提高，农用地投入强度、利用程度、产出效率和持续状况对农用地集约利用水平的贡献率呈现出各自的变化特征。农用地集约利用指数是农民人均纯收入水平的格兰杰原因，而农民人均纯收入水平不是农用地集约利用指数的格兰杰原因，脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明，随着农用地集约利用指数的提高，农民人均纯收入水平将不断加强。

Dynamic econometric analysis of interaction between agricultural land intensive utilization and economic growth: a case of Baicheng County

Measuring and calculating the agricultural land use intensity,  and studying the variation and its interaction with economic growth of agricultural land intensive utilization in Baicheng County of Xinjiang, is of great benefit for reasonable agricultural land use, optimization of land use efficiency, boosting agricultural land utilization transition from extensive to intensive use, guarantee of the supply and safety of grain production, and providing recommendations for policy formulation. The index system of agricultural land use intensity of Baicheng County was constructed, which associates with its actual facts and the implication of land use intensity. Based on it, the entropy method was used to calculate the weights of each index and the comprehensive index method was employed to calculate the agricultural land use intensity, land investment degree, land utilizing intensity, land utilizing efficiency and land sustainable degree, after that their time sequence change characteristics was analyzed. Then some econometric methods such as the co integration, Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data. The implications from the study are as follows: (1) the level of agricultural land intensive utilization in Baicheng County has been gradually increasing since the reform period, but land investment degree, land utilizing intensity, land utilizing efficiency and land sustainable degree exhibit different trends. In the future of agricultural land use, attention  should pay to following items: grain yield increase, harmonious relations between population, food and cultivated land, increasing funding, labor, fertilizer, mechanical power and other aspects of agricultural land intensive use level. (2) The econometric results reveal that there are long term relationships between indices of agricultural land intensive utilization level and the comprehensive index of per capita net income of farmers. Also, the comprehensive indices of agricultural land intensive utilization is the Granger causality to the comprehensive level of the peasant per capita income, however the comprehensive level of the peasant per capita income is not the Granger causality to the comprehensive indices of agricultural land intensive utilization level. During the increase of the agricultural land intensive utilization level, the indices of peasant per capita income decreased in the first three periods and then increasing, and the improving change tendency is continuous.