Simulating low flows over a heterogeneous landscape in southeastern Poland

This paper presents a scheme describing low flow formation processes in areas with different environmental conditions, including the impact of the selection and explanatory power of predictors for a probabilistic model based on the Logit model. The research was carried out using 29 daily streamflow gauges located in the Lublin region of southeastern Poland for the hydrological period 1976–2018. Analysis resulted in two distinct low flow schemes. In the lowland rivers, low flows occur during the warm season and are related to evaporation exceeding precipitation. In the upland rivers, hydrogeological factors related to water levels in the local Cretaceous aquifers determine the occurrence of low flows. This differentiation affects the quality of the predictive models. For lowland rivers, models based on the climatic water balance with a monthly shift have a better fit, while these models used for upland rivers are characterized by an approximately 10% decrease in accuracy. For upland rivers, the combined C_tH_t models without shifts produce the best model fit. The generalized precision of the Logit models is around 80%–90%.