Climate change and other trends in streamflow observations in Australian forested catchments since 1970 |
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| Authors: | R Willem Vervoort Michaela M Dolk Floris F van Ogtrop |
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| Institution: | 1. Sydney Institute of Agriculture, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia;2. Swiss Re Institute, Swiss Re Management (US) Corporation, New York, New York, USA |
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| Abstract: | The effect of climate change on water resources has been an area of continued research, especially in Australia. Previous studies have suggested significant trends in rainfall, and these are amplified causing larger changes in streamflow. However, most of the previous analysis was based on annual time scales or modelled data and did not account for changes in land cover, which could interact with changes in climate. Climate data and streamflow data between 1970 and 2010 from 13 mostly forested small catchments (<250 km2) in Australia were analysed for trends. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis, generalized additive mixed modelling and rainfall-runoff modelling were combined for the analysis. This indicates consistent increases in maximum temperature and varied decreases in rainfall. The streamflow in the studied catchments indicated small decreases in streamflow, which amplified observed trends in the rainfall. In general, overall decreases are much smaller than suggested in earlier research. |
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| Keywords: | climate change rainfall amplification streamflow data analysis |
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