A forecast of public water scarcity on Leu-Rotunda Plain,Romania, for the end of the 21st century

The article examines the risk of water shortages due to the climate change on Leu-Rotunda Plain, which is part of Oltenia Plain in Romania. The region has been exposed to several extreme climatic phenomena, mostly droughts, which has created several problems related to water quality and quantity. The authors defined climate change scenarios using two regional climate models. Water resources under climate change were estimated by a regional numerical groundwater model covering a deep aquifer. The water demand components were estimated for households, industries, services, and livestock, based on specific socio-economic assumptions. A non-probabilistic risk assessment, using simplified fuzzy sets mathematics, was used to estimate water supply, water demand, and the consequences of water shortages. The results of the study revealed significant vulnerability in the water supply, a limited territorial expansion of sewerage networks, an expected increase in households’ demand, an expected increase in industrial and services water demand, a relatively stable demand for water for livestock farming, and an important water shortage in the study area. The authors conclude by highlighting a set of actions to mitigate the risk of the potential crisis.