Remote analysis of changes in the number of small thermokarst lakes and their distribution with respect to their sizes in the cryolithozone of Western Siberia, 2015

Regularities of changes in the number of thermokarst lakes in the cryolithozone of Western Siberia have been studied using multitemporal satellite images. The studies were conducted on 33 test sites selected in different landscape zones of the study area with the use of 134 cloud-free Landsat images obtained during warm months in the period from 1973 to 2013. It is shown that the total number of new lakes is significantly (almost 20 times) higher than the number of disappeared lakes. The area of newly formed thermokarst lakes is, on average, 22 times smaller than the size of disappearing lakes. Therefore, one can assume that the rapid growth in the number of small thermokarst lakes that is observed under the conditions of global warming will lead to an increase in methane emissions into the atmosphere in permafrost zones in the Arctic territories. Results of remote sensing of statistical distribution of small thermokarst lakes with respect to their sizes are given. The studies were performed on eight test sites selected in different permafrost zones of Western Siberia. The size of small lakes was determined according to QuickBird super-high resolution satellite images. It is shown that histograms of distribution of lakes with respect to their sizes allow their approximation by power and exponential functions, which can be used for modeling and predicting the dynamics of thermokarst methane emission in permafrost zones.