| 陕西省旱涝季度,年度预报和集成预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王玉玺,田武文.陕西省旱涝季度,年度预报和集成预报方法[J].高原气象,1998,17(4):427-436. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王玉玺 田武文 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西省气象科学研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院“八五”重大应用项目,“陕西灾害气候方法研究”课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 在大量天气预报实践的基础上，通过分析地理环境，气候背景，大型天气过程的转型及“突变”、太阳活动及天文原因选取预报因子，分析了降水特征，确定了旱涝指标。并采用人工神经元网络、等方法建立了预报模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 季度预报 年度预报 集成预报 |
RESEARCH OF FLOOD/DROUGHT FORECAST AND COMPOSITE FORECAST METHODS FOR THE SEASON AND YEAR IN SHAANXI PROVINCE |
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| WANG Yu-xi,TIAN Wu-wen,YANG Wen-feng,LI Zhi-jia,DONG Ya-fei,YANG Yue-juan.RESEARCH OF FLOOD/DROUGHT FORECAST AND COMPOSITE FORECAST METHODS FOR THE SEASON AND YEAR IN SHAANXI PROVINCE[J].Plateau Meteorology,1998,17(4):427-436. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yu-xi TIAN Wu-wen YANG Wen-feng LI Zhi-jia DONG Ya-fei YANG Yue-juan |
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| Institution: | WANG Yu-xi 1 TIAN Wu-wen 2 YANG Wen-feng 1 LI Zhi-jia 2 DONG Ya-fei 1 YANG Yue-juan 2 |
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| Abstract: | Flood/drought is the main climitic disaster in Shaanxi province. As a matter of experiences in weather forecast,forecast factors are selected,precipitational characters are analysed and flood/drought indicatrixes are detemined by analysing geographical environment,climitic background,turning pattern and abrupt variation of large scale weather,solar activity and astronomical factor. Finally, using artificial nervous unit network,Chebyshev polynomial and variance analysis etc.. A composite forecast method forecasting the season and year flood/drought in Shaanxi province is found. By test forecast in 1994, accurate rate reaches to 83.3 percent and good effect is obtained. |
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| Keywords: | Flood/drought forecast of season and the year Flood/drought criterion Disastrous climite Artificial nervous unit network Composite forecast method |
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