Multi-timescale solar cycles and the possible implications |
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Authors: | Baolin Tan |
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Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China |
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Abstract: | Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700–2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed:
the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700);
and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle
24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012–2014 in the vale between G3 and
G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between
ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare
is defined as ≥ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency:
the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take
place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented. |
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