Modelling China’s potential maize production at regional scale under climate change |
| |
Authors: | Wei Xiong Robin Matthews Ian Holman Erda Lin Yinglong Xu |
| |
Institution: | (1) Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Science, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China;(2) The Macaulay Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK;(3) School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfieldshire, MK43 0AL, UK;(4) The Key Laboratory for Agro-environment & Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, 100081, China |
| |
Abstract: | With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional
crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China’s potential maize production at 50 × 50 km grid scale under climate
change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070,
2071–2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with
the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three
time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO2 fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years.
Without the CO2 fertilization effect, China’s maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for
all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today’s major maize planting areas. When the CO2 fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated
maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|