暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的研究现状与进展

为暴雨灾害风险评估与区划研究需要,综合20年来国内外一些学者在灾害风险评估方面所取得的研究成果和相关文献资料,简要介绍了暴雨灾害风险区划的基本原理与技术路线;概述了暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的基本步骤;着重对暴雨灾害风险评价具有借鉴意义的模糊综合评判方法、灰色系统理论、信息量模型、人工神经网络方法等四种数学评价模型的适用性进行了分析;最后,指出未来暴雨灾害风险评估与区划研究工作的重点,一是优化暴雨灾害风险评估指标体系,二是合理选择暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的支持系统,三是完善暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的方法。

Advance and the Status of the Research on Rainstorm Disaster Assessment and Regionalization

For the research of rainstorm disaster risk assessment and zoning,based on the related productions by the scientists in the world during the past 20 years,the fundamental and technique of rainstorm disaster risk zoning are presentated as well as its process.As the good reference models,Four methods,which are Vague Comprehensive Judging Method,Grey Systems Theory,Information Content Model and Artificial Neural Network Method,were described and analysed in their applicability.The further work was suggested on optimizing the rainstorm disaster risk evaluation index system,chosing the reasonable support system for rainstorm disaster risk assessment and division,and improving the technique of the rainstorm disaster risk assessment and zoning.