Noctilucent cloud formation and the effects of water vapor variability on temperatures in the middle atmosphere

To investigate the occurrence of low temperatures and the formation of noctilucent clouds in the summer mésosphere a one-dimensional time-dependent photochemical-thermal numerical model of the atmosphere between 50 and 120 km has been constructed. The model includes the important chemistry of the hydrogen and oxygen species and transport by eddy and molecular processes. The thermal balance incorporates: heating by solar ultraviolet radiation; transport of chemical potential energy; eddy diffusion and dissipation; molecular conduction; airglow emissions; and infrared cooling by carbon dioxide. A non- LTE parameterization is used to calculate 15 μm band cooling by carbon dioxide. The model self-consistently solves the coupled photochemical and thermal equations as perturbation equations from a reference state assumed to be in equilibrium and is used to consider the effect of variability in water vapor in the lower mesosphere on the temperature in the region of noctilucent cloud formation. It is found that change in water vapor from an equilibrium value of 5 ppm at 50 km to a value of 10 ppm, a variation consistent with observations, can produce a ~ 15 K drop in temperature at 82 km. It is suggested that this process may produce long periods (weeks) of cold temperatures and influence noctilucent cloud formation.