| 基于灰色模型的城市用水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓丽娟,魏光辉. 基于灰色模型的城市用水量预测[J]. 地下水, 2011, 0(1): 100-101 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓丽娟 魏光辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆水利水电科学研究院;新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,并结合实例建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,运用残差检验与后验差检验2种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达99％.用所建立的模型对某市2010-2013年城市用水量进行外推预测.结果表明,该灰色模型用于城市用水量预测,符合其灰色特性,通用性好,并且所需数据少,计算量适中,预测...
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1,1)模型 精度检验 城市用水量 水资源利用 |
Prediction of City Water Demand based on GM(1,1) Model |
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| DENG Li-juan,WEI Guang-hui. Prediction of City Water Demand based on GM(1,1) Model[J]. Groundwater, 2011, 0(1): 100-101 |
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| Authors: | DENG Li-juan WEI Guang-hui |
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| Affiliation: | DENG Li-juan1,WEI Guang-hui2(1.Institute of Hydraulic & Hydropower Research of Xinjiang Province,Urumqi 830049,China,2.School of Water Resources & Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China) |
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| Abstract: | The modeling principle of grey theory and the recognition method of model parameter were presented.A grey GM(1,1) model was established based on the data of certain city from 2002 to 2009.The precision test of residual error examination and posterior difference examination showed that the fitting precision reached 99%.The model was applied to the prediction of city water demand from 2010 to 2013.The result indicates that this grey model used in city water demand prediction conforms to its grey characteristi... |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model precision test city water demand water resources utilization |
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