A time-distribution study of doline collapse: Framework for prediction

A temporal analysis of doline collapse on the Western Highland Rim (Tennessee) indicated one approach to estimating the probability of collapse in areas where the geologic and hydrologic criteria associated with collapse have been identified. The distribution of collapse was examined for trend, autocorrelation, and goodness of fit. The distribution of doline collapse during one 12-month period conformed to a Poisson distribution with a mean occurrence rate of λ=0.346 collapses per week and with the interoccurrence times being exponentially distributed (0.01 level). Although the proposed model is spatially and temporally restricted, it may provide an initial framework for estimating the probability of doline collapse in other karst terrains of similar geologic and hydrologic settings.