| 气候变化影响与风险评估方法的研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭鹏,张韧,洪梅,王锋,龙强.气候变化影响与风险评估方法的研究进展[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(2):155-164. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭鹏 张韧 洪梅 王锋 龙强 |
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| 作者单位： | 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院;河北省唐山市曹妃甸工业区气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475045);唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项(CQZ-2014001) |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化影响是指气候变化背景下社会经济或资源环境的响应。气候变化风险是指由于气候变化所引起的社会经济或资源环境的可能损失。气候变化风险评估是对气候变化影响的定性和对风险的量化。针对气候变化风险评估方法的原理和技术体系,本文从风险指数、风险概率和脆弱性评估三个方面,对研究现状、热点问题和通常方法进行了评述,并对当前研究中存在的问题和未来需求进行了归纳和展望。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 风险评估 脆弱性/敏感性 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/12/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/6/26 0:00:00 |
Research progress on climate change impact and risk assessment method |
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| PENG Peng,ZHANG Ren,HONG Mei,WANG Feng and LONG Qiang.Research progress on climate change impact and risk assessment method[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(2):155-164. |
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| Authors: | PENG Peng ZHANG Ren HONG Mei WANG Feng and LONG Qiang |
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| Institution: | PENG Peng;ZHANG Ren;HONG Mei;WANG Feng;LONG Qiang;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,PLA University of Science and Technology;Weather Bureau of Caofeidian Industrial Park; |
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| Abstract: | Climate change impact refers to the responses of social economy and resources environment to climate change.Climate change risk refers to the possible losses of social economy and resources environment caused by climate change.Climate change risk assessment means the qualitative climate change impact and the quantitative climate change risk.Aiming at the principle and technical system of climate change risk assessment method,current research status,hot issues and common approaches are remarked from three aspects,namely the risk index,the risk probability and the vulnerability.Research gaps and priorities are also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | climate change risk assessment vulnerability/sensitivity uncertainty |
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