基于渔业统计数据的南海区渔业资源可捕量评估

科学确定海洋渔业可捕量是开展捕捞限额管理的前提和关键。南海区渔业资源种类繁多，无明显大宗经济鱼种，且产量统计不够完善，使得可捕量的量化评估较为困难。根据渔业产量统计数据，利用一种简化的产量模型对南海区渔业资源总可捕量以及11个重要经济类群的可捕量进行了评估。结果表明，南海区渔业资源最大可持续产量为308.6万t，总可捕量为246.9万~277.8万t。从11个重要经济类群的评估结果来看，这些类群在20世纪90年代后均遭受过不同程度的过度捕捞。目前状态较好，未处于过度捕捞状态的有蓝圆鲹和竹荚鱼、沙丁鱼类、马面鲀类、鲷类、鳓类和鲐类等6个恢复力较高的类群；而其他5个恢复力较低的类群，尤其是海鳗类和石斑鱼类，目前处于过度捕捞状态。

Assessment for allowable catch of fishery resources in the South China Sea based on statistical data

The scientific quantification of allowable catch is a precondition to implementing a fishing quota system. However,the allowable catches for fisheries in the South China Sea (SCS) are difficult to evaluate because of the inclusion of a wide range of fish species,the lack of crucial economic fish species,and incomplete catch statistics. This paper used a simplified production model to estimate allowable catches for eleven fish groups and the total allowable catch (TAC) in the SCS. Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and TAC in the SCS were calculated to be 308.6×10⁴ t and 246.9×10⁴-277.8×10⁴ t,respectively. MSY estimates for the eleven fish groups showed that they all have been overfished since the 1990s. The stocks of five fish groups (grouper,conger pike,pomfrets,threadfin breams,and hairtails) with low resilience were still being overfished in 2014,with grouper and conger pike being the most extreme examples. The stocks of the remaining six fish groups (Decapterus maruadsi and Trachurus japonicas,sardines,filefish,porgies,Chinese herring,and mackerel) had high resilience and were in good condition in 2014.