Methodological Aspects of the Tolerable Windows Approach |
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Authors: | Thomas Bruckner Gerhard Petschel-Held Marian Leimbach Ferenc L. Toth |
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Affiliation: | (1) Institute for Energy Engineering, Technical University of Berlin, Marchstr. 18, D-10587 Berlin, Germany;(2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany |
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Abstract: | The tolerable windows approach (TWA) allows the climate policyformulation process to be safeguarded in the following way. First,guardrails are defined in order to exclude intolerable climatechange impacts, on the one hand, and unacceptable socioeconomicconsequences of climate change mitigation measures, on the other.Second, a scientific analysis is conducted to investigate thefeatures of those emission paths that are compatible with theguardrail constraints. The fundamental methodology of the TWA isbest described in terms of the theory of differentialinclusions. This emerging mathematical theory already providesnumerical methods applicable as long as the underlying integratedassessment models are of limited complexity. In order to identifyemissions corridors, we propose a novel calculation schemeapplicable also for large-scale integrated assessment models. |
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