Uncertainty, subjectivity, experience: a comparative pilot study

Mean tendencies and variances of ad hoc mean estimates (field estimates) of some engineering geological parameters were compared to statistically obtained reference values. The latter correspond to the “best” estimates in the sense of approximating so-called reality (Einstein and Baecher, 1982. Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering geology. Problem statement and introduction to solution. Rock Mech., Suppl. 12: 47–61; Einstein and Baecher, 1983. Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering geology. Specific methods and examples, Part I: Exploration. Rock Mech. Rock Eng., 16: 39–72). The study was carried out by means of a demoscopic field study on 43 engineering geologists. “Professional experience” was examined by comparing the estimation results of two trial groups, one consisting of people with several years of professional experience, the other one consisting of university students. The biases of the ad hoc estimates due to subjectivity and the limitation of working time at the selected reference outcrops follow statistically describable trends and thus can be analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. Some geological and psychological hypotheses concerning the mean estimation trends, correlations and discriminations are postulated. Implications on commonly used field estimation methods are discussed.