Analysis of satellite and model datasets for variability and trends in Arctic snow extent and depth, 1948–2006

This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal trends in snow depth (SD) and snow cover extent (SCE) for Arctic lands, excluding Greenland, for the period 1948–2006. The investigation not only delineates how the Arctic regions are manifesting significant annual trends in both SD and SCE, but also provides a comprehensive understanding of their historical context. To achieve these objectives, the combined resources of the hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly SCE data, and in situ observations of SD were used. Most regions in the Arctic exhibited a significant negative trend in SD over the 59 years of study. The magnitude of the negative trend was stronger in North America than in Eurasia, where the decrease became more significant, starting from the late 1980s, coinciding well with the temperature rise during that time. During the same period, the warming temperature caused a prominent decrease in deeper SDs (i.e., >35 cm), so that the corresponding SCEs exhibited negative anomalies, with the greatest declines being observed at SDs > 55 cm. In contrast, the SCEs for SD ≤ 35 cm showed increased anomalies during the most recent two decades. The increased anomalies signify a sequential result induced by the decrease in the SCEs with deeper SDs, rather than the expansion of snow to snow-free regions. These changes resulted in a northward shift of the shallow SD line, which took place to a highly significant degree in North America. These results suggest that the Arctic SCE and SD will undergo more intense changes in response to the future climate warming.