The Leonid outburst of 1996

There is strong anticipation that the Leonid meteor shower could produce storm-level activity in 1998 and/or 1999. The well-documented Leonid outburst in 1996 and the more poorly observed one in 1994 have been taken by many observers to imply that a storm is imminent, This article explores the possible relationship between the 1996 outburst in activity and possible Leonid storms. The curve of activity is found to be much closer to that of normal activity, although with greater hourly rates, than it is to the very brief, steeply rising activity curve of a storm. It is probable that the 1996 outburst is thus completely unrelated to any future storm which may appear.