冰碛湖溃决易发性的定量评价

世界范围内的冰碛湖溃决往往造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡.通过分析不含死冰的冰碛坝溃决机理和相关影响因素，采用控制变量法，以喜马拉雅山区21个溃决冰碛湖及其周围未溃决冰碛湖为研究对象，采用6个无量纲影响因子可以合理评估喜马拉雅山区和加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区以及美国西北部地区的冰湖溃决易发性，但喜马拉雅山区不同级别判别阈值较加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区偏大.危险冰体坡度因子、危险冰体温度因子、冰川坡向因子、危险冰体与冰碛湖体积因子、危险冰体与冰湖的运动因子、冰碛坝坡度因子是影响不含死冰冰碛湖溃决的主要因子，由这些影响因子构成的冰碛湖溃决易发性定量评价方法，可以用于其他地区的冰碛湖溃决易发性评价. 

Quantitative Susceptibility Assessment of Breach of Moraine-Dammed Lakes

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have caused tens of millions of dollars of damage to infrastructure and have killed thousands of people worldwide. Based on the formation mechanism of GLOF of moraine-dammed lakes without ice core, 21 GLOFs were selected for the analysis of triggering factors in the Himalayan region. A statistical method was used via the Variable-Controlling Approach (VCA). Six dimensionless impact factors can be used to reasonably assess the GLOFs susceptibility in the Himalayan mountains, southwestern part of Canadian Columbia and northwestern part of the United States, but the threshold values in the Himalayan mountains are larger than those in southwestern part of Canadian Columbia. The dangerous glacier slope factor, the dangerous glacier temperature factor, the glacier aspect factor, the dangerous glacier volume and lake volume factor, the dangerous glacier and lake kinetic factor, and the downstream slope of the moraine-dam factor are major factors for the breaching of moraine-dammed lake and GLOF. The assessment model with these factors may thus be used to assess the hazard of GLOFs occurrence in other areas.