Medium-range forecasts of large ice cover discontinuities for hydrometeorological support of navigation in the Arctic basin

A brief characteristic of the Arctic ice cover discontinuities (ICD) is given. Their practical importance for vessels operating in this region as well as necessity of forecasting such indicators as the prevailing disposition of discontinuities and location of zones of their formation and closure are noted. The forecasting technique is based on the method of complex analogs. A summary of forecasts produced for the Arctic navigation areas since 1991 is provided. It is shown, that recent upgrading of the original methodology allowed to produce forecasts in on-line mode, to present digital maps of the forecast data, and to transfer them directly to the vessel’s automated workplace. A number of practical examples are presented for illustrating the navigation efficiency if forecast and actual ICD data are used. The results of forecast verification are given.