基于工业结构特征的中国地区能源消费强度差异分析

本文从工业结构演变的角度分析地区能源消费强度差异,利用工业特征偏向指数对地区能源消费强度与工业结构之间的关系进行了定量分析,并通过建立地区能源消费强度影响因素的回归分析模型,重点考察了近几年中国地区工业结构能源消耗特征演变对地区能源消费强度差异的影响。研究表明,近几年来中国工业结构能耗特征的变化,对地区能源消费强度差异有重要影响。在中西部地区发挥资源和成本优势、大规模承接东部沿海地区产业转移的过程中,呈现出中西部地区工业结构高耗能化、东部地区工业结构低耗能化的演进态势,而高耗能的工业结构决定了较高的能源消费强度。政府在制定节能减排政策、进行节能目标分解时,要正确认识中西部地区工业结构演变的客观规律与发展阶段,根据各地区能源消费强度的变化特点,制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施。

Evolution of China' s industrial structure and regional disparities in energy consumption intensity

To implement China's 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Conservation and Consumption Reduction, it is necessary to analyze the factors that impact energy consumption intensity across the regions in China. Many scholars have studied the changes of China's energy consumption intensity and provincial differences. This paper aims to investigate the impact of energy-consuming characteristic of industry structure on the disparities of the regional energy consumption intensity. The paper analyzes the change tendency of the national energy consumption intensity from 1985 to 2008. It has been found that the disparities of regional energy consumption intensity are consistent with the pattern of uneven economic development. The energy consumption of the developed areas with low-intensity continues the downward trend, while in the undeveloped areas with high-intensity there is only an indistinct downward trend. By using industrial characteristic bias (ICB) index to describe the characteristic of industry energy consumption and the data of 29 manufacturing industries in the year 2008, the paper offers a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the regional energy consumption intensity and industrial structure. The results show that the regional energy consumption intensity is closely related to the industry structure which in turn is influenced by the evolving regional specialization. The industry structure of high energy consumption causes the high energy intensity of the region. In addition, the paper also employed regression analysis model to analyze the impact of energy-consuming characteristic of industry structure on the disparities of the regional energy consumption intensity. The analysis showed that the change of the regional industry structure which was brought about by the evolution of regional specialization in recent years made a significant impact on the pattern of the disparities of the energy consumption intensity in different regions of China. In recent years, the central and western regions undertook the high energy-consuming industries from the eastern region because of the resources superiority. So the industry structure of the eastern region has become biased toward lower energy-consumption, while the industry structure of the western region shows higher energy-consuming characteristic. At the end, this paper brings forward some suggestions on the energy conservation and consumption reduction policies. The government should have a correct understanding of the laws of the industrial structure evolution and economic development stages. When making the policies of saving energy and breaking down the target of consumption reduction, the government should not set definite goals but take effective measures in different regions based on the changes in the characteristics of the region's energy consumption intensity, in order to make good use of regional advantages, strengthen regional cooperation, optimize energy resource allocation and reach the target of energy conservation and consumption reduction.