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湖南省近54年冬季降水分区及趋势分析
引用本文:胡倩,贺新光,卢希安,章新平. 湖南省近54年冬季降水分区及趋势分析[J]. 热带气象学报, 2019, 35(1): 135-144. DOI: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2019.012
作者姓名:胡倩  贺新光  卢希安  章新平
作者单位:1.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南 长沙 410081
基金项目:国家自然科学基金41472238湖南省十二五重点学科地理学20110001
摘    要:基于湖南省89个气象站点1960—2013年的冬季降水观测数据,应用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)和层次聚类法(HCA)对湖南省冬季降水进行分区,并在分区的基础上,运用离散小波变换结合Mann-Kendall(MK)和Sequential MK(SQMK)的方法,讨论湖南省各分区冬季降水的变化趋势,并识别影响各自变化趋势的主周期分量。结果表明:(1)REOF的前3个旋转空间模态揭示湖南省冬季降水存在3个主要的异常敏感区:湘南、湘西北及湘中;(2)湖南省冬季降水在空间上可划分为5个一致性子区域:湘西北区(DJF1)、湘西-湘北区(DJF2)、湘西南-湘中区(DJF3)、湘南丘陵区(DJF4)和湘南山地区(DJF5),且每一子区域从西南向东北呈带状展布;(3)近54年来,5个子区的冬季降水均表现出增加趋势但各区存在差异,其中,湘西南-湘中区、湘南丘陵区和湘南山地区均呈显著的上升趋势;(4)D1分量是影响湖南省不同区域冬季降水变化趋势的最占优的周期分量,揭示湖南省的冬季降水变化趋势存在准2年的主周期。 

关 键 词:冬季降水   分区   趋势分析   湖南省
收稿时间:2018-03-31

TREND ANALYSIS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE SUB-REGIONS OF HUNAN PROVINCE IN THE PAST 54 YEARS
Affiliation:1.College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China2.Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Hunan Province, Changsha 410081, China
Abstract:In this study, the hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) coupled with rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) is applied to form sub-regions based on the winter precipitation data of 89 meteorological stations in Hunan Province during the period 1960-2013. Then, the method, combined with discrete wavelet transform, Mann-Kendall (MK) and sequential MK (SQMK), is used to analyze the trend of precipitation change and identify the most dominant periodic components that affect winter precipitation trends in each sub-region. The results are as follows. (1) The first three rotated EOF modes reveal three principal precipitation anomaly sensitive areas in Hunan Province: south Hunan, northwest Hunan and central Hunan. (2) Winter precipitation in Hunan can be divided into five homogeneous and distinct regions: northwest Hunan (DJF1), west Hunan - north Hunan (DJF2), southwest Hunan - central Hunan (DJF3), hilly areas of south Hunan (DJF4), and mountain areas of south Hunan (DJF5). And each of sub-regions is extended belt-like from southwest to northeast. (3) In the past 54 years, winter precipitation has an increasing trend in each of five sub-regions, but these trends are different from each other. The southwest Hunan - central Hunan, hilly areas of south Hunan and mountainous areas of south Hunan exhibit a statistically significant upward trend. (4) The wavelet component D1 is the most effective periodic components affecting the winter precipitation trends in the different regions of Hunan Province. It suggests that 2-year periodic events are the main driver behind the observed trend of precipitation in Hunan Province. 
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