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| 基于Logistic回归的海州湾赤潮环境要素阈值研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 许勇,张鹰,刘吉堂,张东.基于Logistic回归的海州湾赤潮环境要素阈值研究[J].海洋通报,2009,28(3). |
| 作者姓名： | 许勇 张鹰 刘吉堂 张东 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京师范大学,地理科学学院,江苏,南京,210046;盐城师范学院,城市与资源环境学院,江苏,盐城,224000 2. 南京师范大学,地理科学学院,江苏,南京,210046 3. 国家海洋局连云港海洋环境监测站,江苏,连云港,222042 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家908评价专项项目，江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目 |
| 摘 要： | 以海州湾2004-2006年赤潮实测资料和同期的水文气象资料为研究对象,通过构建多元logistic回归模型,从各种环境要素中提取出对赤潮暴发有显著影响的无机氮(DIN)、pH值、盐度、水温、硅酸盐和风速等环境要素.根据样本分布状况确定每个环境要素阈值的遍历范围和遍历步长,采用含哑变量的logistic回归模型对有显著影响的环境要素值进行遍历,根据回归的结果建立风险度和相对风险度等指标,并依据这些指标筛查出与赤潮暴发显著相关的各环境要素的阈值分别为:DIN:0.09 mg/L;pH值:8.09;盐度:28.4;水温:25.6 ℃;硅酸盐:0.24 mg/L;风速:3.2 m/s,为在该海域控制赤潮的危害提供一种简便有效的手段. |
| 关 键 词： | 海州湾 赤潮 logistic回归 阈值 |
Research on Environmental Factor Threshold of Red Tides in the Haizhou Gulf Based on Logistic Regression |
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| XU Yong,ZHANG Ying,LIU Ji-tang,ZHANG Dong.Research on Environmental Factor Threshold of Red Tides in the Haizhou Gulf Based on Logistic Regression[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2009,28(3). | |
| Authors: | XU Yong ZHANG Ying LIU Ji-tang ZHANG Dong |
| Institution: | 1. College of Geography;Nanjing Normal University;Nanjing 210046;China;2. Urban and Resource Environment Institute of Yancheng Teachers College;Yancheng 224000;3. Ocean Environmental Monitoring Station of State Oceanic Administration;Lianyungang 222042;China |
| Abstract: | The present study analyzes the data of red tides, hydrology and meteorology collected during May to October of each year from 2004 to 2006 by means of logistic regression, and distills 6 environmental factors including DIN, pH, salinity, temperature, SiO 32? and wind speed. The ergodic range and step length are confirmed with the distribution of the samples. The ergodic processing adopts the model of logistic regression with dummy variables in ergodic range after establishing the guide line of dangerous deg... |
| Keywords: | Haizhou Gulf red tides logistic regression threshold |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |